Persaingan Kerusi Marginal Dalam Pilihan Raya Malaysia: Kajian Kes PRN Johor 2022

The Contest for the Marginal Seats in Malaysia's Elections: A Case Study of the 2022 Johor State Election

Abstract

Abstrak: Sejak Pilihan Raya Umum ke-12 (PRU 2008), persaingan pilihan raya di Malaysia menjadi semakin sengit. Di saat gabungan parti pemerintah, Barisan Nasional (BN) mencatatkan penurunan populariti yang agak jelas sehingga PRU 2018, pakatan atau parti-parti pembangkang pula mencatatkan penambahan sokongan dari masa ke semasa. Dari sudut kewilayahan, terdapat corak yang ketara di mana BN dan Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) kelihatan popular di luar bandar dengan menjadikan isu Melayu-Islam sebagai instrumen untuk mengukuhkan sokongan politik di peringkat akar umbi, manakala Parti Tindakan Demokratik (DAP) dan Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) di kawasan bandar dan pinggirannya dilihat menggunakan pendekatan berbentuk tadbir urus baik. Namun, di sebalik transisi dan perpecahan politik yang berlaku, muncul kawasan-kawasan pilihan raya yang sengit dengan majoriti yang rendah dan semakin banyak dalam kalangan para pemenangnya. Malah, kawasan-kawasan ini dianggap sebagai penentu kemenangan kepada mana-mana pilihan raya di Malaysia, baik di peringkat negeri mahu pun persekutuan. Walau bagaimanapun, fenomena ini masih kurang perhatian sarjana sains politik Malaysia, di sebalik signifikan dalam politik negara. Bertitik-tolak daripada premis ini, penulisan ini dihasilkan dengan menggunakan kerangka analitikal kerusi marginal dan kajian lapangan. Situasi Pilihan Raya Negeri (PRN) Johor 2022 dijadikan kajian kes dalam meneroka dan menjelaskan fenomena ini.  

Abstract: Since the 12th General Election (GE 2008), electoral competition in Malaysia has become increasingly dynamic. At the time of the ruling party coalition, Barisan Nasional (BN) recorded a clear decline in popularity until the 2018 general election, when the coalition or opposition parties recorded an increase in support over time. From a regional point of view, there is a significant pattern where BN and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) remained popular in rural areas by using Malay-Islam issues as an instrument to strengthen political support at the grassroots level, while the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the Parti KeADILan Rakyat (PKR) in urban areas and its suburbs were heavily engaged in the good governance approach. However, despite the transition and political division that took place, there are fierce electoral districts with low majorities and more among the winners. These areas are considered to be decisive for any election in Malaysia later this year, both at the state and federal levels. However, this phenomenon is still under-researched and covered in the Malaysian political science corpus, despite its significance in national politics. Based on this premise, this study is based on the analytical framework of marginal seats and field studies. Therefore, the phenomenon of the Johor 2020 State Election is positioned as a case study in exploring and explaining this dynamic.